The trend of aluminum prices in the first half of 2022 can be described as ups and downs. The geopolitical crisis continues to ferment, superimposed on high energy prices, and overseas electrolytic aluminum plants are facing the risk of production reduction, resulting in aluminum prices fluctuating all the way up. Then, with the aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the re-emergence of the domestic epidemic, both internal and external disks fell. Shanghai aluminum fell to 18,600 yuan / ton, and London aluminum fell to 2,420 yuan / ton.

In the first quarter of 2022, the absolute price will rise as a whole. First of all, because the Spring Festival is approaching, the willingness of downstream aluminum processing enterprises to stock up is high, and the decline in the social inventory of aluminum ingots has boosted aluminum prices. After that, the geopolitical crisis surging, the shortage of natural gas supply, and the soaring energy prices in Europe, overseas electrolytic aluminum plants faced the risk of production reduction, the global supply of primary aluminum was affected, and the cost of aluminum smelting also rose.

In the second quarter of 2022, aluminum prices fell sharply. The first is the further fermentation of the geopolitical crisis, resulting in excess alumina, the collapse of aluminum cost support in London, the price drop, and the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Secondly, the outbreak of epidemics in many places in China is out of control, and the implementation of dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention and control policies has greatly hindered the logistics and transportation of aluminum ingots, and downstream demand has been greatly affected. Then, global inflation was high, and central banks led by the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively, aggravating market concerns about a global economic recession, causing risk appetite and macro liquidity to continue to tighten sharply, and the macro atmosphere continued to weaken, leading to further declines in aluminum prices. . Finally, with the effective control of the epidemic and the frequent release of favorable domestic policies, under the stimulus of government support and the decline of electricity prices in some areas, the new production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been continuously carried out, and the production areas are still mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Guangxi. The operating capacity continues to rise, and the output is in a fast-rising channel. Demand is also in the post-epidemic recovery stage, but due to the many negative impacts brought about by the epidemic and the sluggish real estate terminal market, new orders from aluminum processing enterprises in East China have not increased as expected after the resumption of production.