my country's export growth has slowed since 2022, but it is expected to maintain a structural boom
1. my country's export growth has slowed down since 2022
Above the high base in 2021, my country's export boom has declined since 2022. Since 2022, the growth rate of my country's exports has declined. In April 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of my country's total exports began to be lower than that of South Korea, Vietnam and other economies. First, the high base effect in the same period of last year has obvious suppressing effect on my country's export growth in this period. Second, the process of resumption of work and production in Southeast Asia and other regions has attracted the return of overseas orders, and the "substitution effect" of exports that benefited my country last year has weakened. Third, since March, the epidemic situation in Jilin, Guangdong, Shanghai and other places has been repeated, and the escalation of lockdown measures has adversely affected the domestic supply chain and export shipping, and accelerated the outflow of overseas orders.
2. In 2022, my country's precision manufacturing is expected to remain resilient
In 2022, the resilience of my country's exports will remain, and it is expected to maintain a high structural prosperity. First, global aggregate demand is expected to continue to recover in 2022. Although high inflation and liquidity crunch may lead to a drop in demand in overseas developed economies, the supply gap still exists and will exist for a long time. Second, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places has been brought under control, and the supply chain and shipping are expected to recover quickly. Third, the resumption of work and production and infrastructure construction in Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States and other regions will drive the demand for my country's capital goods and intermediate goods. Therefore, even if the growth rate of my country's exports of goods slows down in 2022, it is expected to maintain a structural prosperity. Especially optimistic about the export prospects of industries with more comparative advantages in my country, such as intermediate goods, capital goods and other precision manufacturing industries. In addition, the devaluation of the RMB and the expectation of tariff reduction and exemption are also expected to bring substantial benefits to export-oriented enterprises.